May's petrol price outlook improves, but diesel drivers are still in for a shock

We can’t exactly say that we have good news concerning the petrol price outlook for May, but we certainly have better news than we did a week ago. The expected price hikes — which sat as high as R11/l for diesel drivers at the beginning of April — have continued to ease over the last couple of weeks. Drivers, it seems, will still pay more at the pumps than they did throughout April, but the projected increases are falling by the day.

May the odds be ever in your favour

That’s according to the Central Energy Fund (CEF), which offers daily predictive snapshots for petrol, diesel, and paraffin prices. It, in conjunction with the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), tracks the economic factors responsible for influencing the price of fuel in South Africa. It uses this data to provide an accurate glimpse at the upcoming fuel price adjustments, taking place on Wednesday, 6 May 2026.

Those factors include the average Rand/US Dollar exchange rate, as well as the price of oil globally. With oil prices spiking everywhere, it has led to a massive under-recovery (price increase) for fuel prices. If oil prices continue to fall, however, it could mean good things for SA motorists.

It’s worth mentioning that the CEF does not provide details for LP Gas. These adjustments will be revealed alongside the official fuel prices. Expect to see those turn up on the first Monday or Tuesday of May.

The government will once again step in to offer drivers a R3/l fuel tax cut, as we saw happen ahead of April’s official fuel price hike. This could end up costing the government between R10 and R12 billion once all is said and done. After that, however, Saffas are on their own. Fingers crossed things will have cleared up by then, yeah?

“We can see a staggered reduction of the fuel price levy for at least another month, if not another two,” said Citi economist Gina Schoeman. “That is certainly feasible in terms of fiscal space,” she continued.