In the build-up to 4 December, the Central Energy Fund (CEF) has published yet another fuel price predictive snapshot, encompassing the country’s various petrol, diesel, and paraffin prices. It’s worth noting that the CEF’s figures (captured below) are not official and should be digested accordingly.

However, the CEF’s figures still offer the most accurate representation of the ever-changing fuel prices, providing daily updates to the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), the official decider of fuel price adjustments. According to the latest snapshot (captured 18 November), diesel drivers will bear the brunt of the price hike, while petrol drivers might be let off the hook with a minor decrease.

All I want for Christmas is… cheaper fuel prices

At the end of any given month, the DMRE reviews all the data provided by the CEF to help determine the official fuel price for the following month. These prices are then officially adjusted on the first Wednesday of a new month, which falls on 4 December in this case. While the current trajectory promises a minor decrease for petrol drivers, a lot can change in the coming weeks.

The CEF’s data is determined by two major economic factors: the current Rand/US Dollar exchange rate and the price of unrefined oil globally. The DMRE reviews these factors before coming to a decision. A strong Rand and cheaper barrel prices for crude oil would, for example, lead to what the CEF calls an ‘over-recovery’ (price decrease), while a weakening Rand and high oil prices would lead to an ‘under-recovery’ (increase).

A mix of these two factors has been tracked by the CEF throughout November, compiling all the data into a handy summary for easy consumption.