South Africa's petrol and diesel price predictions go from bad to worse

It seems like South Africa’s great petrol price streak is coming to an end. Despite positive predictions from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) in the early days of June, the energy institution’s latest snapshot (captured 20 June) paints a distinctly nastier picture than the one we’re used to seeing, with petrol and diesel drivers expected to shell out more for a full thank this July than they have in June.

Can we talk about the political and economic state of the world right now?

This isn’t some minor increase either, like the CEF’s previous predictions last week may have indicated. Those were made before the international squabbles sent the price of Brent Crude oil rocketing in the wrong direction — a factor responsible for influencing the price of fuel locally — and disrupted the glorious bout of price decreases South African motorists have enjoyed for some months now.

And it could get even worse, if analysts are to be believed, with some even predicting a major hike to $130/barrel, up from the roughly $77/barrel prices Brent Crude was trading at last week.

“An oil price jump is expected,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad and a former OPEC official (via Reuters). “Even in the absence of immediate retaliation, markets are likely to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium.”

Thankfully, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), which is responsible for adjusting the country’s fuel prices every month, usually makes its final decision regarding the local fuel prices on the last Friday of the month. That’ll be this Friday, 27 June, meaning there isn’t much time for the markets to go completely ballistic. Still, we aren’t keen to see what’s in store the following month.

Following this, the DMRE will officially update the prices across SA’s fuel pumps on the first Wednesday of the new month, meaning 2 July 2025. While the CEF’s predictions below are not final, they do offer the most accurate reflection of local fuel prices. The CEF achieves this by keeping an eye on international oil prices and the average Rand/US Dollar exchange rate, both of which have contributed to the appalling numbers below.