It’s nearly that time of the month again, folks. The time when the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) adjusts South Africa’s petrol and diesel pumps with all new prices. That’s happening on the first Wednesday of January which in this case happens to be the first day of 2025 – 1 January.

Until the DMRE makes its new prices official, however, we will continue to rely on the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) daily predictive snapshots – which provide South African residents with an in-depth analysis of the various economic factors that influence the fuel price on a month-to-month basis. The latest snapshot (captured 16 December 2024) paints a rough picture of petrol prices, while a minor price decrease is on the cards for diesel.

Not a great start to 2025

Before we get into the current trajectory for petrol and diesel prices, we need to make something clear: the figures below are not facts – they are predictions. The CEF, which reports to the DMRE, keeps track of the necessary factors and presents its findings to the DMRE at the end of the month. This means the CEF’s figures are the most accurate out there, and are simply there to help South African motorists prepare well in advance of the changes.

It’s also worth knowing what can affect the price of fuel in South Africa. The two largest factors are the price of unrefined oil internationally, as well as the current Rand/US Dollar exchange rate. Major and constant fluctuations surrounding these factors can influence the DMRE’s decision to raise or even lower the price of fuel within South Africa. It reviews this data throughout any given month, before reaching a final decision at the end.

This means the DMRE has no power to artificially inflate or deflate the prices. The stronger the Rand and the cheaper oil is around the globe, the better it is for our prices, with many likely to see a decrease. Should the opposite take place, South Africans can expect to see a larger price at the pumps. The CEF’s figures do not include other modifications such as the Slate Levy, which is determined by the DMRE at the end of any given month.