Playing the petrol price prediction game can be finicky. Just a week or two ago, we were reporting another rough month for South Africa’s drivers — both diesel and petrol. Now, thanks to a fresh crop of figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), things are beginning to look a whole lot brighter. For one set of drivers, at least.

This month, lady luck appears to be favouring the country’s diesel drivers with the CEF’s predictions pointing to a minor diesel price drop at the beginning of April. Petrol drivers won’t be as fortunate when the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DoE) gets ’round to altering the pumps on the first Wednesday of the new month.

The prices, Mason!

It’s not worth sulking about just yet. The CEF, a state-owned energy company reporting to the DoE, might offer up the most accurate representation of South Africa’s waning or growing petrol and diesel prices, but their word is not law. That responsibility lies with the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy at the end of this month.

Until that happens, the CEF’s numbers are the best we’ve got. It arrived at these figures by looking at all the same information the Department does at the end of the month, giving us a running bout of predictions to help us better prepare for the official 3 April 2024 changeover date.

That means keeping an eye on the average price of refined oil globally throughout the month, and the current Rand/US Dollar exchange. South Africa’s economic position is a major factor, with changes to load shedding or falling Rand values massively affecting the price we’ll see in April.