Early petrol price forecast is in: increase on the cards for diesel drivers

July has proven to be an extremely odd month where petrol is concerned. Not only did the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy deliver yet another major petrol price decrease (the second in a row, in fact), but it was also the first time ever that South Africa’s fuel prices were adjusted on a Thursday, rather than the traditional first Wednesday of the new month. We expect things to return to normal for August, however.

Unfortunately, we mean more than simply returning to adjusting prices on the first Wednesday of August. According to a fresh batch of fuel price data (captured yesterday, 9 July) from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), South Africa is facing a minor cut to petrol prices, while diesel drivers should expect to fork over an additional 11-26c on top of what they’re already paying at the pumps.

Keep those fingers crossed

That might seem like cause for celebration (from petrol drivers, at least), but don’t get too excited just yet. Judging by the trend shown throughout the CEF’s daily predictions throughout July thus far, it’s unlikely that the predictions down below will hold until the first Wednesday of August (7th), with our pessimistic minds expecting more drops throughout the month. You can blame the steadily rising price of oil for that.

See, the CEF – a state-owned energy company reporting directly to the Department – arrived at the figures seen below based on the current Rand/Dollar exchange rate, and the price of oil globally. Despite a steady Rand in recent days which has contributed slightly to the decrease in petrol prices, it’s the nearly $85/barrel price causing the daily decline.

At the end of any given month, the Department reviews the CEF’s daily data and makes a decision based on the average stats throughout the month. This means it cannot inflate or deflate fuel prices willy-nilly, although it does take control of the slate levy mechanism, which recently saw an extra few cents knocked off fuel prices in July.

We’ll keep you updated throughout July before the Department makes its final decision on the official fuel price adjustments – likely to take place during the first week of August.