If you’re wondering why that full tank of petrol cost you just a little bit less this week, it all has to do with the country’s Department of Mineral Resources and Energy decreasing South Africa’s petrol and diesel prices by a whopping R1+ — something it hasn’t managed since January of this year. Now, it’s looking to replicate the feat by the time July rolls around.

That’s according to a fresh crop of predictions coming from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), foretelling yet another R1+ drop in prices for both grades of petrol. Should the CEF’s predictions hold until the first Wednesday of the new month, which in this case is 3 July, we could see prices reach as low as R22/l for petrol drivers.

Finally: petrol price relief

First, the country needs to not mess up too massively for the prophecy to be fulfilled. See, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy may have the final say on the country’s fuel pricing, but it’s the country’s economic status that truly determines what we’ll see at the pumps every month.

Specifically, the Department as well as the CEF, a state-owned energy company that reports directly to the DoE, keep a close watch on the current price of refined oil globally and the Rand’s strength compared to the US Dollar. The stronger the Rand, or the cheaper the fuel, the better it is for South Africa. Despite the weakening Rand left in the wake of the general elections, the CEF is still pointing towards an “over-recovery”.

While the CEF handles daily predictive snapshots, the Department makes its decision based on the stats throughout any given month. It can then influence the country’s slate levy or retail margin and act accordingly. The CEF cannot account for these changes, which have been known to add a couple of cents to the overall price.