May's expected petrol prices are in: fortune favours the diesel drivers (again)

Look, we’re getting tired of this, too. The last couple of times we’ve reported on South Africa’s official petrol prices, the story hasn’t changed. Diesel drivers are ironically on the up-and-up considering their continually deflating fuel prices, while petrol drivers are on track for their third increase in as many months. If you expected today’s batch of predictions from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) to be any different, we envy your naivety.

There’s still plenty of time to turn things around before the country’s pumps are mutilated. Those responsible for all the mutilating, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DoE), won’t be making their decision until the end of the month, with the official changeover scheduled to take place, as always, on the first Wednesday of any given month. That’ll be 1 May this time ’round.

Petrol on your mind?

If you aren’t yet familiar with the CEF, allow us to introduce you. The Central Energy Fund, or CEF, is a state-owned energy company that reports directly to the DoE, tasked with tracking any fluctuating trends throughout any given month that directly impact the official fuel prices. These trends involve the current Rand/US Dollar exchange rate and the price of refined oil globally.

It then compiles all that data into a daily predictive snapshot (as seen below) to best warn the country of impending price hikes or cuts. The Department looks at an average of all this data at the end of the month to arrive at the official fuel prices. The DoE cannot artificially influence these numbers, though it does still maintain control over any slate levy or retail margin changes. Unfortunately, the CEF does not account for these changes.