In just a few short hours we’re going to see all of the rumours being put to rest when Apple takes the stage in San Francisco, at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium. That venue tells us something and that is that Apple might have more in store than the rumours have suggested. And the rumours have been very suggestive this year.

This is what we’re expecting to come from Apple’s announcement tonight. There are percentage values at the end of each but as a general rule, the lower we get on the list, the less likely its appearance in San Fran.

1 – A New iPhone and iPhone Plus

Come on, you can’t think that Apple’s not going to be punting the heck out of their new iPhone models? There have been rumours galore surrounding the handsets, with some people going so far as to assemble a possibly-working iPhone 6S using a collection of components sourced from all over the place. A camera upgrade is all but confirmed, There are a few other upgrades in store as well, but that’s not unexpected either. People need something to gush over tonight, after all.

Probability: 110% – expect a specification leak about an hour before Apple’s announcement. Well… “leak”.

2 – iOS 9 is certainly coming

This is just about traditional, with new mobile hardware comes a new mobile operating system from Apple. We’d be far more surprised if iOS 9 didn’t show up, especially since they’ve had that whole beta program running since mid-July this year. Oh, yes, and El Capitan is also a candidate for some stage time in San Francisco.

Probability: 100% – Because it’d be very inconvenient if it didn’t show up

3 – An Apple TV refresh

Yes, we know, Apple’s supposed to have released this hardware by now. But it’s on the roster for another year, with all sorts of improvements thought to be on the way. iOS 9, a fancy trackpad-like Bluetooth controller, and beefed up internals and storage are all expected. We might also be seeing a refresh of the 21.5-inch iMac with a much better screen in tow. Our most compelling argument for these two actually comes from info gleaned from the iOS 9 and OS X El Capitan betas, so odds are pretty good on this one.

Probability: 80%. For both the Apple TV and 21.5in iMac.

4 – That iPad Pro we’ve been waiting for

Wait, are we still talking about this? And it’s still not official? Come on guys, what gives? We’ve heard so much about Apple’s (alleged) 13-inch iPad Pro, with everything from specification information – some of which is conflicting, to be fair – to apparent (digital) sightings of the device pointing towards it, the same way that a lack of light points towards the existence of a black hole. Just because you can’t see it yet doesn’t mean that it’s not there. The only real question is whether it’ll show up tonight or next month. Traditionally we’d see new hardware like this in October but Apple didn’t book all that auditorium space for nothing, surely…?

Probability: 80% or so – But we’re laying the high number on Apple’s choice of venue for this event

5 – New iPads should also be arriving

‘Should’ is kind of the operative word here. There has been talk of Apple skipping an update of the iPad Air but the iPad Mini is supposed to be getting some upgrade love. With the uncertainty of what Apple is going to be doing with/about/to the iPad Pro, and the relative silence from the usual rumour channels about Apple’s iPad range, the more familiar slates might not get a massive showing. Or this could all just be lulling us into a false sense of security for a blowout of information tonight.

Probability: 75% – Apple’s managed to keep us guessing here. Well played.

6 – An updated Apple Watch?

That’s a negatory, we’re not going to be seeing a brand new Apple Watch this evening. Heck, we’ve barely even seen the first one and we certainly can’t afford one yet. What we will be seeing is an update to the Watch’s OS, one that will bring native apps, customisation options and new faces to wrists. Now we just need to get one of them on our arms.